Aristotle & the Economic Outlook

Greek philosopher Aristotle

wrote to his son;

.

.

"For one swallow does not make a spring,

nor does one day;

and so too one day, or a short time,

does not make a man blessed and happy."

Aristotle believed that happiness isn't a temporary feeling experienced over a limited period, but the cultivation of virtue and accomplishment over a lifetime.

Today, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) follows Aristotle's approach in determining the beginning and end of an economic cycle. The economy peaked and the current recession began in December 2007, but the NBER didn't conclude this publicly until 11 months later. It may be that this spring, the NBER will declare July 2009 to have been the end of the current recession, with the U.S. resuming a growth course at that point.

In three of the previous four recessions, the economy experienced a quarterly blip of positive growth followed by at least one more negative reading before the recession was finally over. We won't really know where we are now until the dust has settled in six to nine months.

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